CIV - Projected losses of real GDP from 2025 -2050 (% deviation from Standard State)

Real GDP impact from baseline

Note: “1-in-100” refers to a hazard scenario with a 1% annual exceedance probability. Values show the deviation of real GDP growth from baseline after the shock, not total GDP or the full GDP growth rate. Oxford DIGNAD results use GIRI/CDRI direct damages to buildings and infrastructure, with country macroeconomic profiles initialised to 2022 and shocks assumed to occur in 2026. Public reconstruction is assumed to be financed through borrowing, while VAT and labour income tax rates are held constant. Results should be interpreted by hazard, scenario and source.
Chart: UNDRRSource: Oxford University and IMF, 2026Get the dataCreated with Datawrapper