Social Security and Medicare unfunded obligations exceed the government’s entire long-term funding gap, trillions $

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Department of the Treasury, "The 2025 Financial Report of the U.S. Government," March 19, 2026
Figures are in present value terms as of 2025. The left bar shows Medicare and Social Security entitlement obligations separately; the right bar shows the total federal unfunded obligation. The rest of the noninterest budget is projected to run a surplus of $8.8 trillion in present value terms. A small additional share ($0.1 trillion) of social insurance unfunded obligations comes from the Railroad Retirement and Black Lung programs, which are not shown here.