IQE updated scenario valuation matrix (Part 2, May 2026)

Bear probability reduced from 20% (Part 1) to 10% on MACOM deal eliminating covenant/liquidity risk. Asymmetric Bull is new tier. Moonshot refined to M&A-specific scenario. Prob-weighted EV = 0.10x$0.18 + 0.35x$1.25 + 0.35x$3.25 + 0.15x$5.70 + 0.05x$9.00 = $2.90.
Chart: Shawarma CapitalSource: Shawarma Capital model, extending Part 1 scenario frameworkGet the data Download imageCreated with Datawrapper