Figure 2

China’s surplus is rising rapidly, especially when gold imports are excluded

China's trade balance (current account) including and excluding nonmonetary gold, as a percent of GDP, 1994–2026

Notes: The lower dot is the IMF current account projection for 2026. The higher dot is the IMF projection excluding nonmonetary gold in January-September at an annualized rate. Net gold imports before 2015 are calculated using data from China’s trading partners.
Source: International Monetary Fund (IMF), World Bank, and authors’ calculations.