South Texas is the main Lone Star question

Texas's potentially competitive 2026 seats with the party expected the win based on the mapmakers' designs, that party's worst margin in recent statewide races, and the share of selected statewide elections (2016-24) in which it carried the seat

14 statewide elections included in analysis: President (2016, 2020, 2024); U.S. Senate (2018, 2020, 2024); Governor (2018, 2022); Lt. Governor (2018, 2022); Attorney General (2018, 2022); Treasurer (2022); Comptroller (2018).
Source: Dave's Redistricting App