The Chances of a Candidate Winning Their Election, According to Allan Lichtman’s Keys (Prior Elections)

Based on the overall significance value of each key calculated by only the elections which took place before the one in question.

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The candidates shown on the left are the winners of the national popular contest, they aren't necessarily Electoral College winners.

Chart: The Data TimesSource: The Data Times & Allan LichtmanGet the dataCreated with Datawrapper