2 – Iran's projected external debt

% of GDP – The total outstanding amount a country owes to non-residents (foreign creditors).

The 40% line is an indicative threshold based on the medium value of IMF's LIC Debt Sustainability Framework. It's an estimate of the level above which emerging market external debt is associated with elevated risk. The path of the external debt stock is assumed to be the same in all scenarios, that is the $10 billion legacy debt and the debt-financed slice of the $300 billion fund repaid in the back decade; the lines differ in the GDP denominator.
Chart: Dominik A. Leusder for Bourse & Bazaar FoundationSource: Author's calculations; World Bank (IDS, GEP), IMF WEO; Rystad Energy, WB CMO & IEA WEO 2024.Created with Datawrapper