Trump’s economic policies could stoke inflation and hurt the US economy

Projected percent change from baseline under two scenarios, 2025–40
Filter by:   US real GDP   US inflation  

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Notes: Labels show estimated change in 2018 dollar value based on model projections. High scenario is 8.3 million unauthorized workers deported; increases in tariffs on all US imports by an additional 10 percentage points and on US imports from China by an additional 60 percentage points, with retaliation by all trading partners, including China; and erosion of Fed independence. Low scenario includes the same tariff increases as high scenario but with no retaliation by other countries, 1.3 million unauthorized workers deported, and erosion of Fed independence.
Source: Working Paper 24-20 by Warwick McKibbin, Megan Hogan, and Marcus Noland, The international economic implications of a second Trump presidency.