As larger percentages of the U.S. population become infected, direct medical costs will soar into the hundreds of billions of dollars, research shows. The solid line represents the median costs during infection and for one year after.
The lower bound represents a scenario in which key parameters seen in medical care today decline, specifically reductions in the probabilities of severe disease requiring hospitalization by 50%, ICU admission by 20%, and death by 95%. The upper bound represents a scenario in which key parameters rise, including increasing the probabilities of hospitalization and ICU admission by 20%.