1 – Iran's projected gross external liabilities

% of GDP – The stock of external debt and the stock of inbound FDI (foreign direct investment).

Assuming full $300 billion over three decades and ROI on FDI stock and interest costs based on midpoints between Saudi Arabia and Turkey. 'High oil' prices held near current level (World Bank's CMO for April 2026 as anchor), a flat real-price path consistent with IEA STEPS and long-run marginal-cost pricing. 'Low oil: oil volumes and prices linked (lower volume and a wider discount). The historical series includes estimate for 2025/26 based on IMF data war-adjusted for the realised contraction (World Bank GEP, −2.7%) and the ~$5 billion annual loss implied by ~$15 billion of energy-capital destruction (midpoint of Rystad) at a 3:1 capital-output ratio.
Chart: Dominik A. Leusder for Bourse & Bazaar FoundationSource: Author's own calculation; UNCTAD, World Bank (IDS, GEP), IMF WEO, Rystad, WB CMO & IEA WEO 2024Created with Datawrapper