Yield Curve Warns of Recession, But How Far Ahead?

Nearly every time the yield curve (the yield of a 10-year treasury minus a two-year treasury) has gone negative in the past, it's set the clock ticking on a recession, sometimes many months in advance. Red shaded areas show the delay between the first inversion of the yield curve and the onset of a recession. The yield curve inverted in July 2022, and whether a recession will follow remains to be seen. (To see a specific data point, tap or hover over that area of the chart.)