Teacher supply has fallen since 2021/22 and continues to fall in our baseline scenario, where teacher pay growth matches forecasted growth in average earnings

Recruitment to postgraduate ITT compared to target

Note: 2025/26 to 2027/28 is a forecast, based on an assumption that teacher pay growth matches average earnings growth each year, bursaries and early career payments are fixed at 2024/25 levels and there are no other policy influences on recruitment or retention.
Source: NFER teacher pay forecast and simulation modelDownload imageCreated with Datawrapper