There's some precedent for a good Rodgers season... but not much

Among 30 current or potential future Hall of Fame QBs since 1960, age at which they had their final season of various Approximate Value thresholds. (2023 will be Aaron Rodgers' age-40 season.)

Approximate Value is Pro-Football-Reference's attempt to put a single number on each player's value. An average starting QB has around 10 AV, with 15+ AV representing a very good season and 5 AV representing the lowest generally tolerated from a starter.
Chart: Neil Paine/The MessengerSource: Pro-Football-ReferenceCreated with Datawrapper