Two box plots showing the median expert forecast of several events. The first box plot shows the expert-reported likelihoods of each of several events occurring "before the end of 2035" and only 3 events have a median likelihood higher than 50%. "China having more than 1,000 strategic nuclear warheads has the highest median likelihood at 90%. Additionally, a second box plot shows the median likelihoods of SLCM-N first entering service, "Sooner than 2034," "By 2034," "Later then 2034" and "Never" where "Later than 2034" has the highest median likelihood at 40%.