The overhang impact, per Nat & TPM electorate wins

The variables, based on polling average of most recent Verian/Curia/Reid as above, where National electorate wins 33-42; Te Pāti Māori electorate wins 0-7. Opp 👑 = Opportunity holds balance of power. Opp 👑 (R) means right bloc can form govt but only with Opp support. R+x = right bloc majority (Opp not reqd)