Improving retention by, for example, reducing workload could lead to substantial teacher supply improvements

Forecast of postgraduate ITT recruitment compared to target in 2027/28 under different scenarios

Note: Baseline scenario assumes that teacher pay growth matches average earnings growth each year, bursaries and early career payments are fixed at 2024/25 levels and there are no other policy influences on recruitment or retention. The modelled scenarios assume permanent reductions in the leaving rate in 2025/26. Values above 200% have been top-coded to 200%.
Source: NFER teacher pay forecast and simulation modelDownload imageCreated with Datawrapper