Probability that 2024 does not reach the 1.5°C threshold based on past observed sequential changes

% of times the degree of required temperature change has occurred in the dataset (%)

The probability was calculated for the absolute value of temperature change required. For example, ERA5 dataset requires 0.54°C sequential cooling in Nov-Dec for missing the 1.5°C threshold. The probability here, therefore, is for the number of times two-month averages have changed by more than 0.54°C in two months (0 times in 1015 such sequential changes).
Get the dataCreated with Datawrapper