Republican-leaning independents are more evenly distributed across the state

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Source: PPIC Statewide Surveys (November 2022; February, June, July, September, November, December 2023; February, April, June, July, September, October, December 2024; February, June, July, October, November, December 2025); Statewide Database (place-level election results for modeling); Integrated Public Use Microdata Series 1% sample of 2024 American Community Survey (Ruggles, et al. 2025) (Census estimates for weighting)

NOTES: Shading represents the share of independents who lean Republican. Estimates come from multilevel regression and post-stratification models as described in Technical Appendix A. Full model results and question wording can be found in Technical Appendix B.