The data behind the ratings

Simple average error, Simple Plus-Minus, Advanced Plus-Minus, and Mean-Reverted Advanced Plus-Minus for pollsters with at least 20 polls in the Silver Bulletin database. Negative Plus-Minus scores indicate higher accuracy

Note: Simple average error compares the margin in each poll against the actual margin of the election. Simple Plus-Minus accounts for how difficult a given race was to poll. Advanced Plus-Minus accounts for how accurate other pollsters were for the same race. Mean-Reverted Advanced Plus-Minus discounts the results for pollsters with a small number of polls in our database.

Updated February 17 2025Get the data