Must-win time is probably here for Reddick, Blaney, Elliott

Simulated chance of winning at least 1 of the next 2 Cup Series races — and probability of advancing to the Championship 4 without a win — for Tyler Reddick, Ryan Blaney and Chase Elliott

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Based on 10,000 simulations of the 2024 NASCAR Cup Series playoffs. Simulations use track type-specific ratings to estimate each driver's odds of finishing in each position for each race, then track the standings throughout each simulation.

Chart: Neil PaineSource: Racing-Reference.infoCreated with Datawrapper