IEEPA Tariff Revenue Fails to Resolve Growing US Federal Debt Trajectory

Projected U.S. Federal Debt-to-GDP Ratio Under One Big Beautiful Bill Act with & Without IEEPA Tariffs, 2025-2054

Note: Debt-to-GDP ratio pre-OBBBA is from the Congressional Budget Office January 2025 projections, while the debt to GDP ratio for OBBBA and IEEPA tariffs are projected from Tax Foundation's model and include the dynamic effect of both OBBBA and the IEEPA tariffs on both GDP and the federal debt. Debt amounts only include publicly held debt. These estimates do not include the revenue impact of tariffs levied as part of Section 232 investigations.
Source: Tax Foundation General Equilibrium Model, September 2025; Congressional Budget Office.
Chart: Garrett Watson, Tax Foundation Download imageGet the data