Share of initial WCA awards that result in incapacity-related payments

The grey shaded area shows people who after April 2017 are categorised as having some limitations (LCW/WRAG), but (unless they have transitional protection) do not receive any additional payments.
'Discontinuity' is caused by the forced move of ESA claimants to UC (which is counted as an 'initial' claim'), which effectively starts in July 2024; see text.

The chart shows the share of WCA awards that result in incapacity-related payments. The results are described in the accompanying blog post at the Inequalities substack.
Acronyms: 'WCA' = Work Capability Assessment; 'UC'=Universal Credit; 'ESA'=Employment & Support Allowance; 'LCW'=UC Limited Capability for Work group; 'WRAG'=ESA Work-Related Activity Group; 'LCWRA'=UC Limited Capability for Work-Related Activity group.
Chart: Ben Geiger, 11th July 2025Source: Based on official statistics from multiple Stat-Xplore datasets on (i) UC WCA Decision Outcomes, (ii) IB Reassessments, and (iii) new ESA WCAs (available at https://stat-xplore.dwp.gov.uk/). ESA data is available with a longer lag than UC data; ESA WCAs for latest 2mths extrapolated based on (flat) recent trends.Get the dataCreated with Datawrapper