The trend for Covid cases follows the same broad pattern as Covid prevalence but offset by about 3 days

Comparison of the Covid incidence rate with the number of Covid case for England: Nov 14, 2023 to Mar 3, 2024

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Covid incidence rates are from the Winter Infection Survey and case data are from the UKHSA Data Dashboard

Chart: Bob HawkinsGet the dataCreated with Datawrapper