From comparative advantage to cognitive advantage: AI-enabled pathways for economic diversification
Source: The table presents illustrative examples based on observed sectoral specialization patterns, national AI capabilities, and global AI investment trends. Core economic specializations are based on the Harvard Growth Lab Atlas of Economic Complexity, using U.N. COMTRADE and the International Monetary Fund’s World Economic Outlook data. AI capability strengths/emerging focus is determined by the level of sectoral investment from 2014-2025 in each country from Quid-enhanced Capital IQ + Crunchbase dataset (2014-2025), as well as informing the authors’ determinations for AI applications strengthening existing sectors.
The final column in Table A relies on generative AI output from ChatGPT and authors’ determinations on conceptual pathways showing how AI can enable adjacent diversification into higher-value goods, services, or AI capabilities. These pathways do not imply that all capabilities must be developed domestically; countries may pursue them through domestic innovation, partnerships, or strategic procurement. The framework reflects the related diversification approach, where countries branch into sectors that share capabilities, data, institutions, and supply chains with existing strengths. 
