Dory more skillful at every lead hour, confidently inside 15 hours

Brier skill score by lead time (hours), for the probability that a flight cancels. The 95% confidence interval for Dory's advantage over CatBoost includes zero at lead times of 16 hours or more.FlightsAll Excluding near-certain

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Each hour is plotted at its middle. Base rate 1.65%. 17 US carriers, May 8 – June 18, 2026.

Source: AerologyGet the data