Federal Medicaid spending associated with groups potentially subject to work requirements (in 2030)
Note: Per beneficiary estimates are averages of 2019 and 2022 MEPS. We calibrate the weighted average spending of the three groups in the table to CBO’s projections of Federal Medicaid savings in 2030 ($44.5 billion) divided by the Urban Institute’s midpoint estimate of the number people who may lose Medicaid due to the work requirements (5.9 million), yielding annual average spending per expansion adult of $7539 in 2030. Population estimates are from Figure 1 (2022 MEPS).
