US troop numbers may have dropped to 2,500 by January 2021. By the end of 2020, US troops (4,000) were already outnumbered 2x and 6x by US national private security contractors and total private security contractors (including 3rd-country nationals and local Afghans), respectively. These contractors are funded by the US Department of Defense. While it is not clear that the number of private contractors is going to be pulled back in line with the troop withdrawal, they will likely lose the credible threat of air and artillery cover and an aggressive posture.