Largest potential funding declines are at research institutions with the most commercial-linked innovation

Commercial patents and patent-weighted value are aggregated for 2005-2024. Commercial patents and patent-weighted value are aggregated for 2005-2024. Commercial patents are those that cite NIH-funded research split evenly across the cited research institutions. Patent-weighted value estimates follow Kogan et al. 2017, inferred from stock market reactions to patent issuance.
Source: Azoulay et al. 2025