NSW Cup Luck
End of 2025 season
Pythagorean expectation (Pythag) is an estimated winning percentage calculated by points scored and conceded.
Conceptually, this is the "true" level of the team and so when actual wins (Wins) deviate significantly from Pythagorean wins (ΠW), we should expect convergence in the short term (within the season) and regression to the mean in the medium term (next season). This deviation is usually attributed to good fortune (Luck).
Conceptually, this is the "true" level of the team and so when actual wins (Wins) deviate significantly from Pythagorean wins (ΠW), we should expect convergence in the short term (within the season) and regression to the mean in the medium term (next season). This deviation is usually attributed to good fortune (Luck).
Chart: Stats Drop p/b Maroon Observer
