Forecasters warned Ian would flood Fort Myers Beach two days before landfall. Estimates jumped in final hours.

Forecasts underestimated Ian's coming surge until the last few hours before it hit Florida's coast.

Federal meteorologists estimate a peak 15 feet of surge based on high-water marks after the storm. A U.S. Geological Survey sensor recorded a surge height of 12 feet, 8 inches. Forecast surges are measured above ground level, and measured surge is Mean Higher High Water. Times are Eastern Daylight Time.
Max Chesnes | TIMES Source: National Hurricane Center