In 17 of the country's 58 elections between 1788 and 2016, the popular vote was so narrow that changing a relatively small number of votes in just a few states would have shifted the result of the national election. In some years, the person elected president lost the popular vote. In one year, 1880, the Electoral College vote was just about as close as the popular vote.
Year | Popular vote margin, rounded | Vote changes sufficient to sway election | Percent of popular vote sufficient to change outcome | Electoral vote margin | States where votes would be changed (corresponding electoral votes) |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
1844 | 40,000 | 2,554 | 0.09% | 65 | New York (36) |
1848 | 140,000 | 6,669 | 0.23% | 36 | Pennsylvania (26) |
1856 | 500,000 | 11,155 | 0.28% | 60 | Illinois, Tennessee, Kentucky (35) |
1876 | -250,000 | 445 | 0.01% | 1 | South Carolina (7) |
1880 | 2,000* | 8,416 | 0.09% | 59 | Oregon, Connecticut, Colorado, New Hampshire, Indiana (32) |
1884 | 60,000 | 575 | 0.01% | 37 | New York (36) |
1888 | -90,000 | 7,187 | 0.06% | 65 | New York (36) |
1892 | 400,000 | 25,362 | 0.21% | 132 | California, Indiana, North Dakota, Kansas, Wisconsin, West Virginia, Illinois (68) |
1896 | 600,000 | 18,602 | 0.13% | 95 | Kentucky, California, Oregon, Indiana, West Virginia, Delaware (50) |
1916 | 600,000 | 1,887 | 0.01% | 23 | California (13) |
1948 | 2,200,000 | 29,294 | 0.06% | 114 | Ohio, California, Illinois (78) |
1960 | 110,000 | 14,265 | 0.02% | 84 | Hawaii, Illinois, Missouri, South Carolina (59) |
1968 | 500,000 | 41,971 | 0.06% | 110 | Missouri, New Jersey, Alaska (32) ** |
1976 | 1,700,000 | 12,791 | 0.02% | 57 | Ohio and Mississippi (32) |
2000 | -500,000 | 269 | 0.00% | 5 | Florida (25) |
2004 | 3,000,000 | 59,301 | 0.05% | 35 | Ohio (20) |
2008 | 10,000,000 | 495,310 | 0.38% | 192 | North Carolina, Indiana, Florida, Ohio, Virginia, Iowa, New Hampshire (97) |
2012 | 5,000,000 | 214,764 | 0.17% | 126 | Florida, Ohio, Virginia, New Hampshire (64) |
2016 | -3,000,000 | 38,875 | 0.03% | 77 | Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin (46) |