Graph 4: Tax Revenue Growth (%)
Note: Covariates include Employment Share, Tax Share, Technology Share, Economic Freedom Index, Educational Attainment (High School Graduate or Higher) and House Price Index. Donor weights: OR (34%), TX (34%), NM (14%), WA (14%), GA (4%). Pre-treatment RMSPE = 3.03. Treatment year is 2021. Permutation placebo testing reveals negative and significant effects for California relative to its synthetic control in 2023, with standardized empirical p-value of 0.08. Sources: Fraser Institute, FRED, BEA, FHFA, and U.S. Census Bureau.