Relationship between swing and unemployment rate

Red counties overall had higher unemployment rates compared to blue counties. A notable standout was the Imperial county with a whopping 19 percent unemployment rate, nearly twice as high as Tulare's which has the second highest unemployment rate. Despite the poor economy (and a high COVID-19 case rate) the county still voted to keep Newsom in office and swung toward the governor compared to 2018. The county with the lowest unemployment rate is Marin which had one of the higher swings toward Newsom. Despite having one of the lower unemployment rates, Lassen was the worst county Newsom performed in. Out of the three variables, the unemployment rate had the weakest correlation with the swing, trailing way behind turnout rate and COVID-19 cases. This factor only accounted for 6 percent of variation across counties. This finding is contrary to the common assertion that the economy is the chief reason for how people vote. The data suggests that was not the case in this instance.

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