Table 9: Definitions of theories of change

Table with 2 columns and 5 rows.
(Analytic) frame“[A] conceptual orientation that makes salient some aspects of an issue, including cues for what needs to be understood, how to approach the issue, what your goals and responsibilities are, what roles to see yourself as having, what to pay attention to, and what to ignore.”[ref 188]
Theory of impactA “simple two stage asset-decision model of research impact”[ref 189] whereby impactful decisions will be made by key actors at some future point, and where earlier research can provide assets that help these decisions to be made well.[ref 190]
Path to impact[ref 191]“[T]he concrete intervention that future [us] thinks is more valuable than further research—can eventually be tackled with maximum force.”[ref 192]
Theory of change“[D]efines long-term goals and then maps backward to identify necessary preconditions [...] explains the process of change by outlining causal linkages in an initiative, i.e., its shorter-term, intermediate, and longer-term outcomes.”[ref 193] “[A] visual depiction of your strategy,” linking activities, outcomes, impacts, or goals.”[ref 194]
Theory of victory“[C]omplete stories about how humanity successfully navigates the transition to a world with advanced AI.”[ref 195]