Democrats have to hold their seats and win on red turf to capture the Senate

Key Senate races by incumbent, the state's margin in the 2024 presidential election, and the state's lean relative to the country

†Special election
Partisan lean based on the margin for the president's party in a given state in the 2024 presidential election vs. the national popular vote margin. E.g., President Trump won Ohio by 11.2 percentage points in 2024 and the national popular vote by 1.5, so Ohio's lean was +9.7 for the president's party.