Projecting the 2022 season based on an even 2021

Accounting for Pythagorean Expectations (underlying team strength), draw difficulty and projected onfield list quality

Pythagorean expected wins = results adjusted for underlying strength.
Draw impact = Effects of an uneven draw
Player model projects 2-year average Player Approximate Value, accounting for list changes, player age curves, and modelled player availability.
Chart: ABC Source: AFLtables, HPNFooty.com Get the data